Perspectives on trade, investment & Africa's development landscape.

Nigeria ended 2025 with a positive trade balance for the fourth straight quarter — but beneath the headline, a sharp fall in crude oil exports exposed the fragility of a commodity-dependent economy still searching for a new engine.

Nigeria closed Q4 2025 with a merchandise trade surplus of ₦1.71 trillion — positive on paper, but roughly half the surplus recorded in the same period of 2024. Total trade reached ₦36.21 trillion, down 1.07% year-on-year and a steeper 8.94% below Q3 2025's ₦39.77 trillion. The culprit, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), was unmistakable: a dramatic fall in crude oil exports.

Crude oil, which still accounts for 51.17% of all Nigerian exports, shed ₦4.08 trillion in value compared to Q4 2024 — a year-on-year decline of 29.60%. Compared to Q3 2025, it fell a further 24.24%.

"Crude oil exports declined 29.60% year-on-year — the steepest quarterly drop since the pandemic era — dragging total exports to their lowest level in 2025."

The Import Side: Rising Costs, Rising Dependency

While exports contracted, imports grew. Total imports reached ₦17.25 trillion in Q4 2025, a 3.98% rise from Q4 2024 and a 1.73% increase from the preceding quarter. Asia — led overwhelmingly by China — supplied 46.83% of all imports, valued at ₦8.08 trillion.

Top Import Origins	Share
China	31.22%
United States	9.34%
Netherlands	8.80%
India	6.47%
Brazil	3.97%

By category, machinery and transport equipment topped imports at ₦5.13 trillion (29.75%), followed by mineral fuels at ₦4.52 trillion (26.19%), and chemicals at ₦2.70 trillion (15.68%). Agricultural imports surged 31.74% year-on-year to ₦1.44 trillion — durum wheat, soybean oil, and frozen fish feature prominently, underscoring Nigeria's enduring food import dependency.

Export Story: Oil Retreats, Non-Oil Quietly Advances

Total exports in Q4 2025 reached ₦18.96 trillion — down 5.25% year-on-year. The Netherlands (10.72%), India (9.64%), Spain (9.02%), France (7.19%), and Canada (5.42%) were the top five destinations. The more encouraging story, however, is in non-oil exports. Non-oil products contributed ₦3.15 trillion — 16.59% of total exports — up from 14.20% in Q4 2024.

Sector Breakdown

Sector	Export Value	YoY	Import Value	YoY
Agricultural Goods	₦1.32tn	▼ 14.11%	₦1.44tn	▲ 31.74%
Raw Materials	₦1.19tn	▲ 77.69%	₦2.35tn	▲ 11.50%
Manufactured Goods	₦423bn	▼ 14.32%	₦8.80tn	▲ 3.89%
Solid Minerals	₦116.84bn	▲ 92.48%	₦140.99bn	▲ 26.12%
Crude Oil	₦9.70tn	▼ 29.60%	₦499.75bn	—
Other Oil Products	₦6.12tn	▲ 80.45%	₦4.02tn	▼ 16.38%

Solid minerals were the standout performer: exports nearly doubled year-on-year, rising 92.48% to ₦116.84 billion. Raw material exports surged 77.69% to ₦1.19 trillion, led by urea exports to Brazil (₦615.96 billion) and non-monetary gold to Switzerland.

Intra-African Trade: Nigeria Runs a Comfortable Surplus

Exports to Africa totalled ₦3.41 trillion while imports from African nations reached just ₦696.13 billion — a surplus of over ₦2.7 trillion. Within ECOWAS, exports totalled ₦1.81 trillion against imports of ₦279.83 billion. Petroleum products dominate intra-regional trade in both directions.

"Nigeria exported over ₦3.4 trillion worth of goods to African countries — nearly five times what it imported from the continent."

Infrastructure Concentration Risk

Trade by port data reveals a significant vulnerability. Apapa Port in Lagos handled 72.63% of all exports in Q4 2025, with Lekki Deep Sea Port a distant second at 14.85%. Almost all trade — 98.58% of exports and 96.81% of imports — moves by sea, reflecting near-total dependence on maritime logistics.

What to Watch in 2026

Three factors will shape Q1 and Q2 2026 trade data: global crude oil price movements and OPEC+ production decisions; the pace of Dangote Refinery's output ramp-up; and the trajectory of cocoa and sesame seed prices in global commodity markets. For policymakers, agricultural imports surging 31.74% year-on-year is not a story of growth — it is a story of domestic food production gaps that will continue to weigh on the naira unless supply chains are meaningfully strengthened.

Data source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics Q4 2025, published March 2026.

Understanding AfCFTA and why it matters for women

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) creates a single African market of 1.3 billion people valued at over US$3 trillion. For Nigeria, the AfCFTA offers an opportunity to diversify exports beyond oil and to leverage its agricultural potential. Women account for a large share of Nigeria's agribusiness sector, yet they often remain in informal or small‑scale activities. Government officials acknowledge that women‑led enterprises must be positioned at the centre of AfCFTA implementation if the agreement is to deliver inclusive growth.

Opportunities for women agripreneurs

The AfCFTA's tariff‑reduction schedule will gradually eliminate customs duties on 90% of goods traded across Africa. For women exporting fresh produce or processed foods, this means lower landed costs and improved competitiveness. Nigeria's large domestic market offers a springboard to neighbouring West African countries; the elimination of tariffs can make cross‑border sales feasible. Officials have highlighted that the trade area will deliver transformative economic benefits — but only if women can access the tools, training, and finance required to participate.

Persistent challenges

Notwithstanding the opportunities, women agribusiness owners face structural barriers — including limited access to finance and land, weak property rights, lack of market information, and gender‑biased norms. As a result, many operate informally and cannot easily meet export standards. Government ministers have warned that trade agreements alone do not industrialise nations; competitive industries must be built and women's potential unlocked. Access to affordable credit is critical: without it, women cannot invest in processing equipment, cold‑chain logistics, or quality certification.

Government and private‑sector initiatives

Recent initiatives signal growing political will to mainstream gender in trade policy. During a colloquium on women's economic empowerment, the federal government emphasised that inclusive growth demands collaboration to expand women‑owned enterprises. Ministers signed a memorandum of understanding to expand women's access to finance, provide export‑readiness training, and build a database of women‑owned firms. These commitments reflect recognition that women are not merely beneficiaries of trade policy but drivers of trade-led growth.

Non‑government actors are also mobilising. Banks and development finance institutions are launching gender‑lens funds and credit guarantee schemes. Business associations such as the Nigerian Association of Women Entrepreneurs offer training on export documentation, digital marketing, and quality standards. Regional initiatives like the African Development Bank's Affirmative Finance Action for Women in Africa (AFAWA) provide risk‑sharing facilities to commercial banks that lend to women‑owned enterprises.

Practical steps for women in agribusiness

1. Formalise your business and access finance — Register your enterprise, obtain necessary licences, and open a business bank account.
2. Invest in quality and compliance — Adhere to SPS standards, proper packaging, and labelling. Leverage training programmes offered by the NEPC.
3. Understand the rules of origin — To benefit from tariff preferences, exporters must meet AfCFTA rules of origin.
4. Build networks and cooperatives — Women's cooperatives can help aggregate volumes, share cold‑chain infrastructure, and negotiate better prices.
5. Advocate for supportive policies — Engage with policymakers to ensure that gender‑responsive provisions are implemented.

Conclusion

The AfCFTA can be a game‑changer for Nigerian women in agribusiness, but the benefits are not automatic. To seize opportunities in a US$3 trillion continental market, women need targeted support to overcome financing, compliance, and logistical hurdles.

1. Neglecting documentation accuracy

Exporters often underestimate the consequences of incomplete or incorrect documentation. An international trade consultancy notes that even a single wrong document can halt a shipment or lead to significant delays and penalties. Common errors include misspelling buyer details, mismatched quantities between invoices and packing lists, or failing to attach mandatory certificates such as fumigation reports or sanitary certificates.

2. Misunderstanding international compliance requirements

Exporters must comply with a complex web of regulations, including customs classifications, sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) standards, and import licences in the destination country. Failure to meet destination‑country compliance rules often results in product rejection or hefty fines. Many Nigerian exporters of dried hibiscus and sesame seeds have had consignments rejected for exceeding permitted pesticide residues.

3. Ignoring quality and packaging standards

Beyond paperwork, buyers scrutinise product quality, packaging, and labelling. Crops such as sesame seeds, ginger, and cashew nuts must be cleaned, sorted, and dried to specified moisture levels. Packaging should protect the product during transit and meet labelling requirements (country of origin, net weight, harvest date). SMEs sometimes reuse old sacks or use unbranded packaging — a quick way to lose repeat orders.

4. Failing to communicate clearly with buyers and agents

Misunderstandings about order specifications, delivery dates, or payment terms can derail shipments. Exporters should maintain regular communication with buyers, confirm acceptance of product samples, and clarify any modifications. They should also coordinate with customs brokers, freight forwarders, and inspection agencies to schedule their services in advance.

5. Overlooking logistics and post‑export procedures

Shipping logistics require careful planning. Unfamiliarity with freight booking procedures, incoterms (e.g., FOB or CFR), and export insurance can lead to demurrage, storage fees, or loss of cargo. SMEs should work with reliable freight forwarders to manage container bookings, ensure timely customs clearance, and secure appropriate cargo insurance.

Bonus tip — Leverage Nigeria's national single window

To address bureaucracy and duplicate paperwork at ports, Nigeria launched the National Single Window (NSW) platform in March 2026. The digital portal allows importers and exporters to submit standardised documents through a single online entry point and integrates data from multiple agencies, including Customs, NAFDAC, and the Ports Authority.

Conclusion

Export success depends on more than a great product. Nigerian SMEs must treat documentation and compliance as strategic tasks rather than bureaucratic chores. By focusing on accuracy, understanding destination‑market requirements, investing in quality and packaging, communicating effectively, and managing logistics, exporters can avoid costly mistakes and build lasting relationships with global buyers.

What is the CEPA?

On 13 January 2026, Nigeria signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with the United Arab Emirates. The accord aims to deepen bilateral trade and investment by eliminating tariffs, easing the movement of goods and people, and strengthening cooperation in services, investment, digital trade, and intellectual property. The UAE will allow Nigeria to export more than 7,000 products duty‑free, including fish, seafood, cereals, and oil seeds — categories that directly benefit agri‑exporters.

Nigeria committed to removing tariffs on roughly 6,000 products, primarily industrial inputs, with transition periods of three, five, and ten years. The pact also includes provisions for business visas and relocation, allowing Nigerian firms to establish offices in the UAE and vice versa.

Why the UAE market matters

The UAE is a major global trading hub with sophisticated logistics infrastructure, advanced cold‑chain facilities, and strong demand for high‑quality food products. It imports the majority of its food due to scarce arable land and water. Nigerian exporters already supply dried hibiscus, sesame, cashew, and cocoa to Dubai markets via intermediaries. The CEPA offers direct access and eliminates tariffs on a wide range of agri‑foods.

Opportunities for agri‑exporters

• Duty‑free access — Immediate tariff elimination for fish, seafood, cereals, and oil seeds means Nigerian exporters can price competitively.
• Services and investment provisions — The CEPA facilitates collaboration in logistics, warehousing, distribution, and digital trade.
• Business mobility — Simplified visa processes and relocation provisions allow Nigerian entrepreneurs to set up showrooms or warehouses in the UAE.
• Technology transfer — Cooperation on digital trade and intellectual property can expose Nigerian firms to cutting‑edge e‑commerce platforms and food‑processing technologies.

Conclusion

The Nigeria–UAE CEPA is the country's most ambitious bilateral trade agreement in recent years. By securing duty‑free access on over 7,000 products and easing investment and business mobility, it opens a lucrative market for Nigerian agri‑exporters. Capturing these opportunities requires preparation: meeting stringent UAE quality standards, understanding the tariff schedules, leveraging digital trade platforms, and building partnerships.